Research
Weekly analysis of markets, technologies, and sectors where we operate.
Nigeria's reform-led stabilisation is real and earned, built on positive real rates and carry-funded reserve accumulation. But turning that leased calm into durable stability now depends on domestic refining, sticky FDI, and local crude supply.
Oil de-escalated and the July panic began to unwind, but the black market moved the other way. The street premium rose as Brent fell, which means a different driver is now in control.
A second oil chokepoint has closed, Brent has crossed $100, and the Naira strengthened anyway. The premium is where the pressure is showing, and it doubled in a week.
Oil has round-tripped the war, and Nigeria is enjoying the resulting sweet spot: reserves at a 17-year high, output at a six-year high, inflation easing. The foundations are thinner than the headlines, resting on China staying out of the crude market and portfolio money choosing to stay in Naira assets.